Key Insights:
- US macroeconomic events, including PCE inflation data, will heavily influence the direction of the crypto market‘s next phase.
- The price of Bitcoin is targeting a successful retest of the neckline support at $82,000 on its path toward $100,000.
- Ethereum (ETH) has gained 11.6% this month, positioning itself for its strongest September in ten years.
Following a robust performance that pushed the crypto market to a $3 trillion valuation last week, prices have experienced selling pressure. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming US macroeconomic releases, specifically PCE inflation and jobs reports. Simultaneously, silver and gold prices have fallen to seven-week lows. Bitcoin is currently maintaining a level above $83,000, while prominent altcoins such as Ethereum, XRP, BNB, and Solana have recorded declines of 2% to 5%.
Crypto Market Will Closely Watch Macro Events
After reaching a $3-trillion market capitalization last week, the digital asset ecosystem is bracing for a heavy calendar of US economic reports covering employment, inflation, economic growth, and job openings.
US JOLTS job openings figures are scheduled for release on Tuesday, September 29. Core PCE inflation and GDP reports will follow the next day, and non-farm payroll data will be published on Friday, October 2.
Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 48 basis points this month to reach 5.23%, marking its highest point since 2007. September is presently on track to record its largest monthly surge since April 2024.
The yield sits just 5 basis points shy of its peak from 2007. Coin Bureau noted that breaking past that threshold would set it on a trajectory toward its highest mark since 2002.
The US Federal Reserve paused purchases of US Treasury bills in December 2025, though its balance sheet remains roughly $209 billion higher over that timeframe. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has expressed a willingness to potentially resume these purchases.
Bitcoin Price Eyes Bullish Retest At $82,000
Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin has broken out of a double-bottom configuration, sending BTC toward neckline support at $82,000.
According to Martinez, if this price floor holds, the retest could offer a favorable entry point for buyers. The analyst projects that the $100,000 target for Bitcoin could be reached as early as late October.
Fellow crypto analyst Crypto Patel emphasized that a daily close for Bitcoin above $82,500 is a critical metric to watch. Such a move would confirm a higher-timeframe change of character (CHoCH) following the breakout from a previous pattern of lower highs and lower lows. BTC subsequently advanced to $87,368, though Patel noted that a confirmed new higher high has not yet formed.
Patel mentioned that Bitcoin has encountered resistance inside the bearish order block and fair value gap region spanning $90,585 to $84,694. As long as Bitcoin preserves its bullish structure, the analyst’s higher-timeframe outlook remains positive.
Altcoins: Ethereum To Have Best September Closing
The wider altcoin sector has also demonstrated solid momentum alongside Bitcoin over the past month. Ethereum has spearheaded the movement with a 10% monthly increase, accompanied by notable advances from XRP, Solana, ZEC, HYPE, and DOGE.
With an 11.6% gain so far in September, Ethereum is tracking toward its best performance for the month since 2016. This would represent only the fourth time in the last decade that ETH has posted positive returns in September. With three days left in the month, Ethereum still has time to lock in the record.
Analyst Michael van de Poppe warned that ongoing volatility across the cryptocurrency sector could spark a temporary correction, leading him to increase his cash holdings slightly. Even so, Poppe anticipates that any downturn will be relatively mild and give way to a recovery heading into the fourth quarter, maintaining an overall bullish stance for Q4.
Frequently Asked Questions
What US macroeconomic data is the crypto market watching this week?
Investors are closely monitoring US JOLTS job openings, core PCE inflation, GDP data, and non-farm payroll reports.
What is the key price level for Bitcoin right now?
Analysts are watching the neckline support at $82,000 for a potential bullish retest, with a daily close above $82,500 also highlighted as important for confirming a higher-timeframe change of character.
How is Ethereum performing this month?
Ethereum is up 11.6% in September, putting it on track for its strongest September performance in a decade.
What is happening with US Treasury yields?
The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen 48 basis points this month to 5.23%, reaching its highest level since 2007.